Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.728076 35.376391 38.274953 41.709283 45.702772 50.245206 55.869907
2025-07-13 29.771315 33.477917 37.831684 43.427022 50.591792 59.712258 72.667836
2025-07-20 27.012664 31.065215 36.025077 42.724885 51.859424 64.440394 84.300437
2025-07-27 26.115733 30.686893 36.510585 44.785240 56.846780 75.011588 107.692275
2025-08-03 24.989282 29.840870 36.213838 45.637535 60.153201 83.797940 132.065806
2025-08-10 23.830677 28.815799 35.523502 45.767019 62.292431 91.145492 157.719757
2025-08-17 22.453087 27.374323 34.102518 44.604014 62.100546 94.231926 175.889264
2025-08-24 21.244205 26.075627 32.768500 43.407517 61.628921 96.622741 194.091178
2025-08-31 20.967885 26.043177 33.239801 45.063795 66.380811 111.052740 262.817298
2025-09-07 20.026246 25.006261 32.142736 44.047783 66.038933 114.164207 296.762587
2025-09-14 19.216903 24.114582 31.202629 43.198157 65.879995 117.694791 339.166376
2025-09-21 18.285584 23.002836 29.863718 41.559786 63.942257 116.240978 355.296117
2025-09-28 17.279554 21.850771 28.569201 40.201505 63.045308 119.157809 420.602896
2025-10-05 16.993107 21.752541 28.922885 41.810995 68.805858 144.542414 854.594650
2025-10-12 16.268859 20.948708 28.084769 41.152506 69.448748 154.923163 1413.554044
2025-10-19 16.116668 20.993050 28.607573 43.083528 76.678331 196.715485 40495.234974
2025-10-26 15.766008 20.705072 28.550203 43.881136 81.407023 236.346541 NaN
2025-11-02 15.331142 20.257396 28.183269 44.002251 84.392814 273.640434 NaN
2025-11-09 14.738143 19.529005 27.283190 42.913840 83.642453 287.339921 NaN
2025-11-16 14.183859 18.838054 26.407993 41.792740 82.567562 298.473925 NaN
2025-11-23 14.073768 18.851196 26.763261 43.344285 90.266901 407.938510 NaN
2025-11-30 13.609045 18.267950 26.019318 42.392831 89.543818 433.161649 NaN
2025-12-07 13.195526 17.752432 25.370487 41.596431 89.194918 465.990028 NaN